Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
